The Value Of Not Trading Adam Dunn

Maybe all factors haven’t been considered?

1. Dunn is the closest approximation to a ‘Frank Howard’ (and for Ballimerians Boog Powell) that has been seen since perhaps McGuire. But Dunn is in DC and that makes all the difference. The “Hondo allure” should not be underestimated and won’t be by the ownership. In other words don’t expect them to be as cheap as you might expect when it comes to Dunn. Now you have the ‘heir apparents’ to Walter Johnson AND Frank Howard except amazingly both could be better? I should be in the Nats marketing and sales department?

2. Yes, if worst comes to worst Rizzo will take the draft picks as Kushner suggests but its always a good idea to listen to what the real baseball people think … as well right here: http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_game/2010/07/dunn-gossip-from-baltimore.html

What this says to me is that Rizzo will not give up Dunn without a fight. So, he had better plan on spending the offseason honing his fielding skills in Florida because they need a lot of work. A lot. There’s plenty of hunting and fishing around Florida.

3. Rizzo’s highest priority and one of the guiding principles for rebuilding the Nationals is replenishing the farm system. During the rain delay in Cincinnati he admitted that he found the Nationals in worst shape in 2006, than the newly minted expansion team AZ Diamondbacks. A damning appraisal of the talent in the Nats farm system from when he took over as GM if I ever heard one.

That said he needs prospects, more prospects, and even more prospects as fast as he can get them because he said it took a good six or seven years for AZ. He knows he can’t wait that long in DC. Signing high priced free agents (excluding the young International types from the DR) will not ameliorate this problem. Trading for B with upside and A prospects (a lot harder) from other teams could help jump start things. But what do you offer to get these prospects? He really has only one player that everyone covets and it isn’t Dunn, he himself has pretty much admitted that its Jordan Zimmermann. His most prized pitcher after Stephen Strasburg.

So how do you stay aligned with your guiding principal while keeping players who might help you get above the .500 mark and god forbid, get into a wildcard run or win the division?

The answer unfortunately comes in the form of packaging players like Capps, Storen, possibly Morgan if he improves. Then there’s the most valuable trade chip he has: Ryan Zimmerman. Would he move a Zimmerman if he were offered 5 B with upside and A prospects that are reasonably close to major league read? I think the answer probably is yes.

I just don’t see the team gaining the prospects Rizzo wants for just a Dunn, or Willingham, or Capps. He has to get more … and that is what the other teams who inquire are finding out. And honestly, I am with him all the way on this, MLB allowed and helped ravage this franchise so that it had to leave Montreal. MIke Rizzo is not asking any more than these franchises should be paying for that travesty … IMHO.

…anyone who makes the case for holding the picks being one of our options needs to keep FJB’s post on this into the discussion. That article makes the bad process, good results argument but is a little dated because it was written in July 2009. Interesting to note the context of that deal because it was written in the middle of Nick Johnson’s strong season of last year and was designed to help motivate the Nats faithful to embrace a trade of Nick Johnson, which was made for C/C+ prospect Aaron Thompson whose been kind of enigmatic this year, flashes of potential but an awful stretch in the middle of the season that we hope he’s worked out.

Let’s leave the bad process, good results argument and focus on the actual difference between Slowey and Zimmermann. To me the basic difference is one of a time. According to fangraphs, Slowey’s been a 5.9 WAR player in four big league seasons to this point. He’s 34-20 with a 4.53 ERA in the American League in 423.1 IP. Sounds like a thoroughly mediocre pitcher for the Twins who has made his small but significant contribution to a perpetual playoff contender. Jordan Zimmerann’s had one big league season with 1.8WAR, a 3-5 record and a 4.61 ERA and been a hope since 2008 when it became clear he had the potential to be special. But basically, he hasn’t contributed that much in 2007 or 2008, made a significant contribution in 2009, and will make a small contribution in 2010 which might have been greater if he was a potential playoff arm. Slowey made a solid 3.0 WAR contribution in 2008 and modest 1.4WAR in injury shortened 2009 and 1.3 WAR in 2010 to date.

For the 2006 Washington Nationals, Slowey’s significant contributions become part of the difference that prevents you from getting franchise altering Strasburg and top prospect Harper if signed. For the 2006 Twins, Slowey helps push you over the top as you narrowly beat the Tigers to get in the playoffs.

So the question is are we close or are we far? If we’re somewhat close, settling for the picks is completely unacceptable. It’s basically an admission that we’re 4-5 years away instead of 2 years or so away from contending. If we’re far, than it’s okay but you better be pretty damn good at picking draft picks Mr. Rizzo and I want to see Cole and Solis signed this year with some of the money you know that you’ll be saving.

I can live with keeping Dunn and aggressively seeking to make major progress next year to contend in 2012.

I prefer trading Dunn if there’s a Dan Hudson deal from the White Sox. Hudson is starting now for the White Sox and could be a significant 3rd or 4th starter. If it’s below Dan Hudson, I hope he waits to try to get other players into the conversation but I could live with a deal that includes multiple Top 10 prospects in the White Sox system.

But I cannot, cannot, cannot live with just taking the picks and the “wait for the Plan!” stuff. Because as you’ve written here, the plan window kind of expires after 2013 when Zimmermann leaves and it’s hard to see the picks contributing by then. And if you sign somebody to replace Dunn, you’re kind of reducing the value of the picks with the picks that you lose.