In this thread, we'll be going through the local teams that are still sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and present each team's chances of actually making the tournament. All stats from ESPN's InsideRPI (insider only). Let's take a look at VCU.
RPI Rank: 51
Conference Record: 12-6
Strength Of Schedule: 86
Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5
Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason
Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern
In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).
They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.