SB Nation DC: All Posts by Mike Prada

VIDEO: Otto Porter scouting report from Draft Express

2013-05-23T22:04:39Z

Fresh off the presses, here's Draft Express' scouting report of the early favorite for the Wizards at No. 3.

Roy Hibbert probably wouldn't have stopped LeBron James' amazing Heat buzzer beater

2013-05-23T13:00:09Z

The world witnessed a thrilling ending between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Wednesday. Just when it seemed that Paul George would be the hero, LeBron James stepped up with a buzzer-beating layup to give Miami the one-point overtime win.

Afterwards, nearly everyone had the same question: where was Roy Hibbert?

Continuing a somewhat odd trend that began at the end of the Game 6 of the Pacers' second-round series win over the New York Knicks, Pacers head coach Frank Vogel took out his elite rim protector in single-possession situations late in the game. Hibbert had already sat once on a play near the end of overtime, and the Heat ran a 4-1 pick and roll (described here) to force a switch and get James a driving layup with no big man to step up. This time, Vogel pulled Hibbert with 2.2 seconds remaining, and James dove down the lane for an uncontested left-handed layup to give Miami the win.

Results-based thinking would therefore suggest that sitting Hibbert was a big mistake. Indeed, Vogel admitted that while the play broke down because the Pacers pushed up too high on LeBron, he'd use Hibbert if the situation came up again.

Problem is, coaches don't live in a results-based world. They can't pause the play, plop Hibbert in Sam Young's place near the rim and resume the tape. Just because Hibbert would have been in doesn't guarantee that he would have been in position to make a difference. We can't assume that Hibbert could have done anything to prevent the breakdown that allowed James to turn towards the rim in the first place. We also have to keep in mind that Hibbert's presence may have enabled one of the other options on the play to succeed.

Most importantly, the Hibbert-or-no-Hibbert question doesn't change three essential truths about that late-game sequence.

The Heat ran an unbelievable play.
George made an unbelievably awful error when he overplayed James, giving him the lane to the basket.
Young displayed unbelievably awful court awareness to not move over soon enough to potentially take a charge.

There is little Roy Hibbert could have done to change No. 1 and No. 2 and it's somewhat debatable that he even could have mitigated the damage after the fact significantly better than Young did in No. 3.

***

Let's walk through the play to explain that point of view.

The Heat have the luxury of being able to play five shooters at once, and they used that on this play. Miami came out with Norris Cole, Ray Allen, James, Shane Battier and Chris Bosh. Battier threw in with David West on him. George Hill started on Cole, Young came in to guard Allen, Tyler Hansbrough was on Bosh and George, obviously, was on James. Here's the alignment.

The first action of the play was a brush backscreen between Ray Allen and Chris Bosh. Allen faked a screen for Bosh to go backdoor, then sprinted to the left corner. Look at how the Pacers dealt with this part of the play.

This is where folks need to address butterfly effect that would have occurred had Hibbert been in the game. Let's say that Hibbert is in there in place of Hansbrough, the most logical substitution. How does Hibbert deal with a situation like this?

Sticking with the same "switch everything" philosophy would never have worked. How could Hibbert be expected to chase Allen, one of the game's greatest clutch shooters, from the right block to the left corner beyond the three-point line? He doesn't have anywhere close to the mobility to do that.

What if the Pacers didn't switch and instead asked Young to fight through the screens? That's one option, but then Allen could easily have broken free for a good look. At that point, the Pacers would have been criticized for letting a player with Allen's reputation get a clean look. It's also worth noting that the momentary switch-or-no-switch confusion between Young and Hibbert, if in, could have left Bosh open for a lob pass. This is why most coaches advocate switching in late-game scenarios like this. It's just easier for players to process when making snap-judgment calls.

More: Full coverage of Game 1 Western Conference Finals coverage

Another option is to essentially station Hibbert in an area under the hoop and play zone, but that would have left somebody open and wouldn't remove the problem of Allen having a significantly better chance of sneaking away from Young to get a look in the corner without an automatic switch.

There's also the possibility that the Pacers could have executed an elaborate series of switches that would have left Hill or even George on Allen, but those would have been far too difficult to execute in 2.2 seconds.

Those are your alternatives, and each presents drawbacks. Speaking in practical terms, it's far from a given that Hibbert would have actually been near the rim once we roll the play forward. If the Pacers kept switching everything, he actually would have been pulled to the corner. If they didn't, there's still a chance that gives Allen a little more space to catch, turn and get a good look because Young took time to fight through the Heat's screens he didn't have to fight through when the Pacers switch everything. These were risks that Frank Vogel was unwilling to take, and I understand that point of view.

Now, I've seen two counterpoints to that argument:

So, worst-case scenario, you're saying Allen shoots a jumper. That's still better than an uncontested layup.
If you're going to switch everything, why have Hansbrough in instead of another wing like Lance Stephenson.

The answer to both of those questions is this: the Pacers' plan to switch everything with Young and Hansbrough worked! (Though I agree with criticism No. 2 from a process standpoint.)

Think of this play in multiple parts. As James said after the game:

Lebron says he knew he only needed one dribble to get to the rim. Bosh 1st trigger w/a lob, Ray Allen at the corner was the 2nd trigger.
— bandwagonknick (@bandwagonknick) May 23, 2013

Triggers 1 and 2 were shut down by the Pacers' switch, which, as noted above, likely would not have happened with Hibbert in the game. If Trigger 3 -- throwing the ball to James and letting him do his thing -- is also shut down properly, the Pacers stop this play with or without Hibbert.

But obviously, Trigger 3 was not shut down properly. George bodied James the wrong way, allowing him to turn left and get to the rim with no help. This is George's breakdown, and there's nothing Hibbert could have done to prevent it.

Here are all the angles of George closing out to James' right, allowing James to turn to the basket.

George expected James to catch and turn right, so he played him that way. Obviously, that was a big mistake. George didn't have any help going left, with Hansbrough correctly closing out on Allen and Young now with Bosh standing on the opposite side of the paint. For George to cheat like that was a massive error. He has to force James to catch going away from the basket.

All that is true with or without Hibbert in the game. Wherever Hibbert would have been situated, James going towards the basket is an incredibly scary scenario. The error is George's, and it's frankly a pretty basic one. As long as George plays that sequence remotely close to correctly, the Pacers don't give up a layup, the shot a rim protector like Hibbert is most likely to deter.

(One explanation for why George messed up: the Heat ran a similar play at the end of regulation and George switched onto Allen to contest his fadeaway game-winning attempt that missed. Instinctually, George was on high alert to watch Allen again if the Heat repeated the play. Notice where his eyes are as Allen runs by him on his way to the corner.

That is enough to divert his focus on bodying James the right way and in part causes the breakdown. Yet another reason why the real story here is Miami's brilliant play design.

Meanwhile, all James needs to do is dive down the lane for layup. It is true that Young, now the closest Pacer to the rim, does a horrible job of seeing the play develop and sliding over to potentially stop a drive. This is as big a breakdown as George's mistake.

And yes, this is theoretically where Hibbert could have been instead of Young. But remember:

If the Pacers switched everything, Hibbert would have been with Allen in the corner.

If the Pacers played a zone or simply didn't switch the initial action that caused Young to be near the basket on Bosh in the first place, Allen would likely have gotten a good look in the corner.

The breakdown by George -- which, remember, is independent of Hibbert or no Hibbert on the floor -- was so bad that there's no guarantee Hibbert would have been positioned significantly better than Young, even with Hibbert's obvious defensive strengths. Hibbert certainly wouldn't have positioned himself as if George was going to screw up. Sure, Hibbert would have certainly offered more resistance than Young no matter what, but would it have been nearly enough to prevent James from finishing or at least drawing a foul? I'm skeptical.

It's possible Hibbert would have been there, but it's nowhere close to an open and shut case.

***

All this said, I do understand the logic of wanting Hibbert on the floor, particularly in a macro sense. The Pacers defend a certain way that relies on Hibbert's rim-protection abilities, so why not trust it in a late-game situation rather than getting cute? There's something to that logic.

More: Roy Hibbert's face says it all

At the same time, there's also something to Frank Vogel's logic too. It's not enough to look at the outcome of the play and conclude that Hibbert would have actually been at the rim contesting James' layup. For one thing, the Heat may have instead found Allen open because Hibbert's presence made that trigger easier. For another, the mistake by George was so drastic that Hibbert's presence may not have made any difference even if he was somewhere around the rim.

I'm speaking in maybes because there's just no good way to know. There's logic in saying that not playing Hibbert was a mistake because he might have made a difference.

But if we're looking for reasons why LeBron James got a wide-open layup in overtime with 2.2 seconds left in an Eastern Conference Finals game, there are several others that played a bigger role than Hibbert's non-presence on the court.

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Glen Davis: The reason why Vine was invented

2013-05-22T21:08:31Z

Thank you, Big Baby.

Bradley Beal to get X-ray in 'next couple weeks' to determine stress injury status

2013-05-22T20:27:34Z

You'll recall CSN Washington's report earlier this week that Bradley Beal had yet to be cleared to return to baskeball-related activities despite being seven weeks removed from being shut down with a stress injury in his left fibula. J Michael asked Beal himself about his status at the draft lottery yesterday, and this was Beal's answer.

"I still haven't been cleared," Beal told CSN after he represented the Wizards at the draft lottery and secured the No. 3 overall pick for the June 27 draft. "It's been six weeks since I've done any basketball-related activities. In the next couple weeks or so I'm going to get another X-Ray and see if the fracture actually started closing and see if can get back out there. Until then I'm still rehabbing, lifting weights and refraining from any basketball activity."

The word "fracture" freaked me out upon reading the article. However, a Wizards spokesman told Bullets Forever that, much like John Wall did last December, Beal misspoke and did not mean to indicate that the bone was actually broken. Michael Lee asked Beal a similar question and put in "[stress reaction]" in the quote used in today's story.

Semantics aside, the injury itself will likely take over two months to heal, so it's serious enough. Wall's "stress injury" in his knee ended up sidelining him for over three months. Standard aches and bruises don't take this long to heel, so whatever one wants to call it, the effect is the same.

While it is the offseason, I'd feel much more comfortable if Beal was healed enough to be cleared soon.

Wittman doesn't want three rookies either

2013-05-22T19:23:54Z

Wittman doesn't want three rookies either

Zach Lowe: Many thought Wiz would have shopped No. 8 pick

2013-05-22T19:17:50Z

A lot of folks around the league expected Washington to shop its first-round pick for some veteran help when that pick was slated in the mid-lottery. It will be interesting to see what the Wiz do now that they're picking third.

Grantland.

NBA Mock Draft 2013 roundup: Otto Porter, Anthony Bennett early Wizards favorites

2013-05-22T19:11:41Z

The NBA Draft lottery is done, which means it's time for mock draft season! Everyone knows and nobody knows! Speculation! Rumors! (These exclamation marks are genuine. I really am excited on some level to figure this all out).

Thanks to SBNation.com's handy table, we know that five of the seven prominent Internet mocks have the Wizards taking Georgetown forward Otto Porter. The other two feature UNLV's Anthony Bennett. Here are the explanations:

SBNation.com (Otto Porter): Porter is a safe pick -- a local kid who fills an instant need on your roster. At the same time, that leaves you with a frontcourt of the future of Nene (30) and Emeka Okafor (30). If you have three top-three picks on your roster, it seems reasonable to make at least one of them a big man.

Draft Express (Anthony Bennett): The Wizards ranked last in offensive efficiency last season and depth at the guard positions is another area the team might look to address. Anthony Bennett might be the most talented prospect on the board regardless of position, and also fills a major need as a shooting four that can play alongside both Emeka Okafor and Nene. He looks like a good fit here considering Washington's struggles offensively.

NBA.com (Otto Porter): The Wizards get a very good outcome. Porter is a position need and coming off a season as the Big East Player of the Year that moved the versatile small forward into the top five.

ESPN/Chad Ford (Otto Porter): The Wizards need help at the small forward position and Porter, who played his college ball in Washington, appears to be the perfect fit. With two super backcourt scorers such as John Wall and Bradley Beal, having a forward who's a facilitator like Porter feels just right. The other player to watch carefully for the Wizards is Anthony Bennett. Sources say the Wizards also are very high on Bennett and could opt for his potent offensive game to expand their options at power forward.

Sports illustrated (Otto Porter): Here's where things get fun. The Wizards need a small forward, and GM Ernie Grunfeld got a good look at the Hoyas' Porter all season long. Porter is a versatile forward with an excellent mid-range game. But UNLV's Anthony Bennett -- who is unable to work out for teams because of a shoulder surgery -- has monstrous potential at either forward spot. Pencil in Porter, a more traditional small forward, for now, but don't expect it to be an easy call.

CBS Sports (Anthony Bennett): He's injured with a shoulder injury, but he's got far higher upside than Otto Porter. Bennett is a combo forward from Canada who can score both inside and out and can form with John Wall and Bradley Beal.

NBADraft.net: The Jan Vesely experiement has not worked out leaving the door open to add local guy Otto Porter. Another local product Alex Len is a possibility. Porter made a very impressive jump from his freshman to sophomore seasons, showing no difficulty in becoming the leader of the team and winning Big East Player of the Year. Otto is about as low risk as it gets in this draft, however his ceiling isn't as great as some of the other top prospects. He's a relentless defender and a pro athlete, but it's unlikely that he will ever be an elite level scorer. He's very thin, but weight/strength shouldn't be an issue at the 3 position. He showed the ability to knock down key shots throughout his short college career. Despite a less than picture perfect jumpshot, he gets results. Porter's consistency and potential makes him a likely top 5 pick in this year's draft.

And now, it's time for you guys to speak. Let's assume Nerlens Noel won't be available with the No. 3 pick. Who is your ideal draftee?

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Poll

Who is your top choice for the Washington Wizards with the No. 3 pick (outside of Nerlens Noel)?

The importance of perimeter shooting to the Memphis Grizzlies

2013-05-22T16:54:05Z

The Memphis Grizzlies lost Game 2 to the San Antonio Spurs in overtime on Tuesday night, falling behind 2-0 in the series. That's bad. Generally, it's very hard to come back from a 2-0 deficit in a playoff series.

But with that bad news comes a silver lining that could prove crucial in their attempt to come back in this series. In Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter, the Grizzlies may have found a wing combination that provides them with enough perimeter shooting to get back offensively. The duo was on the floor for a majority of the Grizzlies' comeback effort. From the 4:22 mark of the third quarter on, the Bayless/Pondexter pairing shared the court for over 15 and a half minutes. The Grizzlies outscored San Antonio by eight points during that stretch and would have done so by more if they could hit a couple more open shots and didn't miss a handful of layups near the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bayless/Pondexter combination doesn't start for Memphis, of course, because Lionel Hollins prefers the defense of the Tony Allen/Tayshaun Prince duo. But the problem is that the Spurs are cheating off those two players (more so Prince than Allen) to prevent the Grizzlies from running their patented post offense. It's the same formula San Antonio used against the Lakers, and it had been working the same way.

More Game 2 coverage: Grizzly Bear Blues Pounding the Rock

Look at all these examples of the Spurs helping off Prince (usually) or Allen (occasionally) to jam up the lane.

The Spurs would rather risk the possibility that a poor offensive player like Prince or Allen gets an open opportunity if it means shutting off far more dangerous options like Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph in the post. Prince and Allen are so limited offensively at this stage of their careers that they can't make San Antonio pay for accepting that trade-off. When they play together, their limitations only allow the Spurs to send even more resources at Memphis' more dangerous options.

This is where Pondexter has a lot of value. As an excellent three-point shooter from the corners and a solid shot-fake-and-drive player, Pondexter actually has the capability to make the Spurs pay for the way they allocate defensive resources. He's hitting 44 percent of his three-pointers in the playoffs and has hit six of his 13 attempts from downtown in the series. His spot-up capabilities also allow him to do this when the Spurs employ the "Tayshaun Defense" on him.

At a certain point, the threat level of Pondexter forces the Spurs to reallocate their defensive resources, which provides more space for Memphis' primary offensive options. This is especially true when Bayless, a much stronger offensive threat than Allen, is in the game with Pondexter. Notice some of the differences in the positioning of the Spurs' wing defenders on these plays.

Good shots were created on all these possessions, in large part because Pondexter and Bayless occupied enough of the defense's attention to open other opportunities.

The Grizzlies also did a couple interesting things with Bayless to get him the ball on the move. Here, Conley executes a dribble handoff into a pick and roll to get Bayless an open shot.

On this play, the Grizzlies have Bayless enter the ball to Gasol in a HORNS set, then come off a staggered double screen -- i.e. two screens not set on top of each other -- for an open jumper.

Earlier, the Grizzlies ran a similar set, but had Bayless fake a screen for Conley before coming off a double screen of his own.

Finally, here's a nifty Flex-style set where Bayless fakes a cross-screen in the post for Zach Randolph, then curls to the lane for an open three as Darrell Arthur screens his man. (This may look familiar to some, because it's essentially the Paul George Screen Maze I wrote about before the playoffs).

Bayless has his faults, obviously. He exhibits poor shot selection and struggled mightily at times trying to defend Tony Parker. But these are the kinds of plays the Grizzlies can run with him that they can't run with any of their other wing players. That makes him valuable in trying to address the Spurs' defensive coverages.

This series is far from over, and in fact, there's some reason for optimism for the Grizzlies. They lost the first two games to the Clippers in Round 1 -- with Game 2 acting as a heartbreaking defeat -- but implemented the discoveries they made in defeat and won the last four games of the series. Last season the Thunder dropped the first two games of the Western Conference Finals to the Spurs, but discovered some cracks in the Spurs' gameplan at the end of Game 2 and used that momentum to win the next four straight.

It will be a tall order for the Grizzlies to repeat history, of course, but they have discovered something that works with their wing combination. If they carry the adjustments over properly, they can get right back in this series.

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