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2012-13 Washington Wizards player evaluation: John Wall

2013-05-09T13:31:47Z

Our look back at the 2012-13 season continues. Today's installment: John Wall.

Basic stats: 18.5 points and 7.6 assists in 32.7 minutes per game, 52% true shooting percentage, 20.8 PER.

Contract status: Washington picked up their team option for Wall for next year for $7.5 million. He can be signed to an early contract extension this summer that would kick in starting with the 2014-15 season. Many think that deal will be a max contract.

Preseason expectations: Wall was viewed as an electrifying athlete who might never reach his ceiling due to his poor jump shot. This year was supposed to be critical in his development into a star. It wasn't unreasonable to believe he'd be a fringe All-Star if Washington got off to a hot start, but he had to step up.

Offense: The consistent jump shot that had eluded him for years finally appeared. Wall shot 29 percent from 16-23 feet in 2012, among the worst performances of any perimeter player in the NBA, and made a ghastly 7 percent of his three pointers. This year he managed to make 37 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet and 27 percent of his threes. While neither figure is particularly impressive, the respect defenders were forced to show his jumper opened up the rest of Wall's game, allowing him to become a much more effective option in the halfcourt. Not only did he manage to score more efficiently, boosting his true shooting percentage to a career-high 53 percent, but he managed to do it more frequently. His torrid stretch from March until the end of the year is to thank for this rise.

While Wall's scoring grabbed headlines, he also quietly improved as a passer. He assisted on a career-best 44 percent of Washington's field goals when he was on the floor while cutting his turnovers to the lowest level of his career. Some of this is simply a result of experience, but his improved jumper probably came into play here, too. Defenders needed to play him tighter on the perimeter to account for his jump shot, which in turn opened up additional passing lanes. Washington scored an additional 7.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court last year, with much of the improvement tied to an increase in the number of uncontested three pointers that Wall's presence and vision created.

Defense: Wall's defense, while not bad, didn't improve at the same rate as his offense last year. Washington was only half a point per 100 possessions better defensively with Wall off the court last year. That's not great, but for a primary offensive weapon with a decent backup, it's not terrible. Wall gambled too much and had trouble staying with ultra-quick guards, but more or less did what was required of him.

Other stuff: Wall missed half of the season with a knee injury and, while there don't appear to be any lingering effects, it does raise questions about his durability. Wall is highly reliant on his quickness and, especially if the improved jumper is a fluke, any lingering injuries could really hurt his production.

Did he meet, exceed or fall short of expectations? Wall played well below expectations at first, then well above them at the end. On the whole, he was at or slightly above the level of play expected of him. That said, he had some very high expectations to live up to.

Overall: This is what we'd been waiting for. Wall looked every bit the franchise player he was drafted to be during the last few months of the season. He improved dramatically once his jumper started falling and appears set to take his place as one of the top five or six point guards in the NBA next year. Not too shabby, right?

Poll

On a scale of 1-10, how would you rate John Wall's season?

1

1 votes

2

1 votes

3

4 votes

4

0 votes

5

3 votes

6

20 votes

7

80 votes

8

208 votes

9

138 votes

10

67 votes

522 votes | Poll has closed

2012-13 Washington Wizards player evaluation: Kevin Seraphin

2013-04-29T17:28:47Z

Our look back at the 2012-13 season continues. Today's installment: Kevin Seraphin.

Basic stats: 9.1 points and 4.4 rebounds in 21.8 minutes per game, 10.3 PER, 23.5 usage percentage and 47.8 true shooting percentage.

Contract status: Washington picked up their team option for Seraphin for next year. He'll make $1.7 million in 2013-14 and $2.8 million in 2014-15 if his option is picked up.

Preseason expectations: There were high hopes for Seraphin following his strong finish to the 2012 season. He looked like he'd be, at worst, a versatile third big.

Offense: Seraphin wasn't the worst offensive player in the NBA last year, but he was among the most destructive. Kuhveen shot frequently (23.5 percent usage rate, higher than Nene) and inaccurately (47.8 percent true shooting percentage, worst among Washington rotation players). On top of his inaccurate shooting, he was a terrible passer who averaged only 1.7 assists versus 2.7 turnovers per 36 minutes last year. This provided a deadly combination that killed Washington's efficiency any time he took the court, landing Seraphin his first Andrea Bargnani Award for providing his team with the least production of anyone in the NBA, contributing -4.9 wins and owning the second worst shot selection in the NBA.

If there's a silver lining here, it's that Seraphin shot well at the rim and in the paint. If he could just cut out the jump shots and draw a few fouls. he might be useful. That said, he's going to have a strong temptation to drift away from the basket as long as he's playing significant minutes at power forward, something that's unlikely to change if Washington retains both Nene and Emeka Okafor.

Defense: Seraphin's defense was decent this year. While Washington was noticeably better defensively with Okafor and Nene on the floor together, but Seraphin was part of quite a few effective defensive lineups. He has the strength to guard big post players and the quickness to bottle up pick and rolls, but lacks the length and hops to adequately protect the rim when he moves to center. The numbers back this up, as Washington's overall defense was much better when Seraphin was paired with a shot-blocker like Okafor as opposed to a more below-the-rim type like Nene or Trevor Booker.

While Seraphin's overall defense was OK, his rebounding wasn't. Seraphin averaged a career-low 7.2 rebounds per 36 minutes, a very poor mark for a player with his strength and size. Seraphin is physically capable of far, far more on the glass and needs to be more aggressive when pursuing the ball.

Other stuff: Seraphin brings a lot of toughness to the court and was very effective against bulky post players, something that can't be said of Nene and Okafor. Even if he doesn't turn things around on the offensive end, Seraphin should always have a place in the NBA as long as he can effectively defend big centers.

Did he meet, exceed or fall short of expectations? He fell way short. Seraphin looked like a future starter at this point in 2012. Now? It's not even a guarantee that he'll be in the rotation next year.

Overall: It's hard to view Seraphin's season in any kind of positive light. Between the poor shot selection and the lack of rebounding, Seraphin probably did more harm than good last year.

Poll

How would you rate Kevin Seraphin's overall performance this season?

1 (terrible)

10 votes

2

14 votes

3

38 votes

4

46 votes

5

60 votes

6

21 votes

7

9 votes

8

5 votes

9

2 votes

10

0 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

Washington Wizards 2012-13 player evaluations: Bradley Beal

2013-04-24T13:00:10Z

Our 2012-13 player evaluations continue. This time, we profile Bradley Beal.

Basic stats: 13.9 points per game, 3.8 rebounds per game, 39% three point field goal percentage, 13.6 player efficiency rating.

Contract status: Signed for about four million dollars per season through the end of 2014, with team options for the following two years at 4.5 and 5.7 million dollars per season.

Preseason expectations: The third pick in the draft, Beal was expected to start at shooting guard and to provide above average shooting and rebounding while adjusting to the NBA.

Offense: Beal had a solid campaign overall, but it really was a tale of two seasons. During the first two months of the season he was bad, largely due to a propensity to take and miss long two pointers. Once his shots started falling things predictably turned around a bit. And once John Wall came back, things turned around a lot.

Bradley Beal, Shot Selection and Field Goal Percentage, With and Without John Wall

Wall On Court
	FGM	FGA	FG%	%FGA
Restricted Area	24	42	57.10%	24.70%
In The Paint (Non-RA)	5	12	41.70%	7.10%
Mid-Range	18	50	36.00%	29.40%
Corner 3	18	29	62.10%	17.10%
Above the Break 3	15	37	40.50%	21.80%

Wall Off Court
	FGM	FGA	FG%	%FGA
Restricted Area	55	99	55.60%	19.10%
In The Paint (Non-RA)	10	33	30.30%	6.40%
Mid-Range	79	215	36.70%	41.60%
Corner 3	28	63	44.40%	12.20%
Above the Break 3	30	107	28.00%	20.70%

Data courtesy of NBA.com/stats

Beal made 34% of his three pointers without Wall versus 50% when sharing the court with him. For the most part, this was a result of better shot selection brought about by Wall's ability to draw defensive attention, both in the halfcourt and in transition, and to kick the ball out to Beal in the corner or cutting to the rim. This ties in nicely with Beal's greatest strength and greatest weakness - he's a guy who should be able to get you 20 points per game within the flow of an offense. That's great when you have a ball-dominant point guard and bigs who know how to pass, not so much when your team desperately needs someone who can create shots in isolation.

Defense: Beal took his share of rookie lumps on the defensive end but more or less played well last season. MySynergySports ranked him the 77th best defensive player in the NBA last year and the fifth best defense in the NBA was exactly as good with him on the floor as it was with him off of it. Beal is undersized with short arms so the deck is stacked against him when it comes to NBA defense, though. He'll never be a stopper and it's unlikely he's ever much better than average, but it says a lot about his basketball IQ that even as a 19 year old rookie he wasn't that bad.

Other stuff: Beal has a high basketball IQ and a lot of maturity for a guy his age. Even though Wall is still considered the centerpiece of Washington's team, Beal had already begun to emerge as a locker room leader by the end of the season.

Did he meet, exceed or fall short of expectations? He made the All-Rookie team and looked like a core piece by the end of the season. That's about what's typically expected of a number three pick.

Overall: Beal looks like a keeper. His skillset perfectly complements Wall's, he's still on his rookie deal and he has a reputation as a fan-friendly, high character guy. A few more signs that he could eventually achieve elite status would have been nice, but Beal nonetheless has a very bright future.

How would you rate Bradley Beal's season on a scale of 1 - 10? Vote below.

Poll

On a scale of 1 - 10, how would you grade Bradley Beal's season?

1

1 votes

2

0 votes

3

1 votes

4

0 votes

5

2 votes

6

15 votes

7

91 votes

8

229 votes

9

109 votes

10

38 votes

486 votes | Poll has closed

Washington Wizards 2012-13 player evaluations: Trevor Ariza

2013-04-23T17:16:40Z

Our 2012-13 player evaluations continue. This time, we profile Trevor Ariza.

Basic stats: 9.8 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, 14.0 PER, 53.8 true shooting percentage.

Contract status: Ariza has one year and $7.8 million left on his deal with no stated intention of exercising his early termination option.

Preseason expections: There wasn't a ton of optimism where Ariza was concerned at the beginning of the season. After a great playoff run as a role player with the Lakers, Ariza signed a long-term deal and looked to become more than just a three and d type. Ariza lacked the handle or jumper to be anything more than a fourth option, though, and his increased usage, lowered efficiency and declining defense torpedoed his value. Things started to turn around once he made it to New Orleans and the general vibe coming out of the Washington was one of tempered optimism. No one thought Ariza would be a star, but he seemed like he'd be able to plug a hole on the wing that had been filled by journeymen and scrubs since Caron Butler left town.

Offense: Ariza looked like a bit of a chucker at the start of the season, but by the time he returned from a knee injury - which coincided almost perfectly with John Wall's return to the team - things began to click. After a ghastly start, Ariza shot 45 percent from the floor and 42 percent from deep after the All-Star break, leading to a very respectable 54 percent true shooting percentage on the year. He also did a good job of moving the ball, averaging 2.8 assists per 36 minutes, an impressive feat considering how rarely he initiated set plays. This passing touch added a new wrinkle to Washington's offense and worked well when mixed in with Nene and Bradley Beal's ability to move without the ball.

Ariza was particularly good at making three pointers from the corner and making the extra pass. Ariza made more than 40 percent of his corner threes, a shot that becomes far more common with John Wall running the point as opposed to A.J. Price. Along with his 62 percent shooting at the rim, this was the main reason Ariza was able to be a reasonably effective scorer despite his lack of ball skills.

Defense: Defensive impact is impossible to sum up in one nice clean number. That said, all signs point to Ariza being among the best defensive wings in the NBA. As the primary perimeter stopper on the fifth best rated defense in the NBA, Ariza was both disruptive in the passing lanes and a capable one on one stopper. He nabbed 1.8 steals per 36 minutes last year and, when he was paired with Emeka Okafor and Nene, the Wizards' defensive rating of 91.8 would have led the league. While Martell Webster wasn't the worst defensive player in the world, Washington's was a full two points better per one hundred possessions with Ariza on the court, even more so when he was paired with Okafor and Nene.

Lineup	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg	DREB%	REB%
Ariza-Okafor-Nene	29	169	92.6	91.8	0.8	79.50%	51.10%
Webster-Okafor-Nene	51	796	102.9	97.9	5	79.20%	52.00%

Data courtesy of NBA.com/stats

Other stuff: Ariza was penciled in as the team's starter at the beginning of the season but was eventually replaced by Martell Webster. In a situation where a clash of egos could have disrupted team chemistry, both players managed to get through it without incident and there were never even rumors of a conflict. Considering how everything played out with Jordan Crawford, Ariza deserves props for this.

Did he meet, exceed or fall short of expectations? At the very least he met expectations and, depending on your opinion of his defensive value, possibly exceeded them. No one expected Washington to post the fifth best defense in the NBA last year, and Ariza played a large part in this.

Overall: It's not Ariza's fault that Webster overshadowed him this year. Ariza performed well enough that, even if the team is unable to retain Webster, they'll have a very solid small forward next year. Sure, he's probably overpaid, but with his contract set to expire next year, that might even be a good thing should Washington try to flip him for a someone who fills a more pressing need.

How would you rate Trevor Ariza's season on a scale of 1 - 10? Vote below.

Poll

On a scale of 1-10, how would you grade Trevor Ariza's season?

1 (terrible)

1 votes

2

2 votes

3

0 votes

4

6 votes

5

15 votes

6

61 votes

7

129 votes

8

54 votes

9

11 votes

10

7 votes

286 votes | Poll has closed

Did Randy Wittman's tears inspire Washington's defensive play?

2013-04-18T17:01:02Z

According to Michael Lee, Randy Wittman cried after the Wizards' twelfth loss of the season, inspiring Martell Webster to buy in to the system.

Martell Webster said Randy Wittman cried in locker room after #wizards lost 12th game. MW immediately bought in after seeing RW's passion
— Michael Lee (@MrMichaelLee) April 18, 2013

Washington finished the year with the NBA's fifth best defense despite the season being more or less a lost cause by January. The effort and discipline necessary to maintain such a high level of play is rare period, even less so among non-contenders.

Webster wasn't the only player to noticeably improve his defensive intensity this year. Trevor Ariza, who appeared to be loafing at the beginning of the year, was a key part of the team's defensive success this year and played wonderfully during the second half of the season. Ditto for Nene, who played hard all year while battling numerous injuries.

Wizards vs Bulls preview: The end is here

2013-04-17T17:00:09Z

Well this is bittersweet.

The Washington Wizards close the 2013 season tonight with a game against the Bulls in Chicago. After a tumultuous season that saw friends become enemies and enemies become friends, the Wizards head into tonight's game with a team that's almost the complete opposite of the one that struggled through the first two months of the season.

The Wizards began the season with a roster full of finishers and no one to set them up. Now, with Nene, Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster and Bradley Beal out for the year, the offense should be all Wall, all the time tonight. The scary thing is that, despite Chicago's legendary Tom Thibodeau-orechestrated defense, Washington's offense might run better than it did at the beginning of the year. Wall's emergence as a capable scorer has changed everything about how teams have to prepare for Washington, and tonight we'll get a chance to see if his physical gifts and automatic elbow jumper are enough to overcome a system notorious for stymieing ball-dominant players.

Where and when? The game is at 8 p.m. in Chicago.

Are they good? Yes. Chicago is 44-37 on the year with the point differential of 41-41 team. They've made up for the absence of Derrick Rose and their once-great bench mob by running more of their offense than ever before through Carlos Boozer while letting Nate Robinson run wild with the ball when the offense gets stagnant.

Why should I care? It's the last Wizards game of the season.

Who's out? Chicago is looking to clinch the fifth seed in the East, so they'll be going all out tonight, with no one other than Rose unavailable. Washington will be missing Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, Nene, Bradley Beal and Emeka Okafor.

What are they good at? Defense and offensive rebounding. Chicago's defensive rating is seventh in the NBA, they're fourth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage allowed and they manage to pull down more offensive rebounds than only four other teams. Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Luol Deng all have had a lot to do with all of this, with additional contributions from Boozer and Nazr Mohhamed on the glass.

What are they bad at? As tends to happen when you lose an MVP-caliber player like Rose for the year, Chicago's offense is nowhere near as effective as it was last year, ranking only 23rd in the NBA in efficiency. Boozer and Noah can pass, Deng can create a shot from time to time, and Robinson's still good in a ball-dominating way, but all of these guys are overmatched when asked to be primary offensive options. Much like Washington before Wall returned, Chicago has a lot of guys who can finish plays but no one who can set them up.

Where else can I read about the Bulls? Check out Blog A Bull.

What are your thoughts on and predictions for tonight's game? Sound off in the comments and vote in our poll!

Poll

Who wins tonight?

Wizards

16 votes

The Bulls

27 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

Wizards vs Nets preview: John Wall looks for redemption in rematch with Brooklyn

2013-04-15T17:15:06Z

The last time the Washington Wizards played the Brooklyn Nets, something ... horrible happened. Despite the best efforts of John Wall and Washington's top ten defense, Deron Williams personally outscored the Wizards 23-14 in the first quarter on the way to hitting nine three pointers in the first half. Washington wasn't able to make up the difference and fell 95-78.

Tonight, they get to try again. Brooklyn has already clinched the number four seed in the East and Washington just lost the race for ninth, so it's anyone's game. Let's see if Wall can get some revenge and put on a show.

Where and when? Tip off is at 7:30 p.m. in Brooklyn.

Why should I care? Andray Blatche always tries to dominate when he goes up against his former team, usually with poor results. Tune in tonight to watch him fail, in addition to Wall's rematch with Williams.

Who's out? Probably everyone decent or fragile on the Nets. There's no official word yet, but why would they risk an injury to someone like Williams when they can't improve their playoff seeding? Washington's going to be missing Nene, Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster.

Are they good? Yes, in the same way that the Hawks were for a few years. Brooklyn is a good team with a good record, but they're not elite and they're probably as good as they'll ever be. They're in the same position now that we thought they'd be in when Joe Johnson signed last summer: a 45-50 win team that will lose in the second round of the playoffs.

What are they good at? Offensive rebounding. Thanks to the presence of Reggie Evans, Brook Lopez, Blatche and Kris Humphries, what Brooklyn lacks in springiness around the basket they more than make up for with tenacity and strength around the rim. The Nets are second in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage, one of the primary reasons their offense is ranked eighth in the NBA in spite of its relatively weak three-point shooting.

What are they bad at? Have you ever heard the phrase "too many cooks in the kitchen?" Williams, Johnson and even Blatche, Gerald Wallace and Marshon Brooks have all been primary offensive options at some point in the last few years and Brooklyn's offense would likely function better if it swapped some of that playmaking for shooting. The Nets have a bunch of guys who are either primarily jump shooters or known for being smooth ball handlers. Nonetheless, they're only 20th in the NBA in turnover percentage and don't pick up a lot of assists. At their worst, watching the Nets is like watching a kid play NBA 2K13 and try to make a play with whoever touches the ball first in the halfcourt.

What's next for Andray Blatche? Dray's one year deal with the Nets comes to a close this summer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Brooklyn could use him, as could another couple of teams with cap space. Normally a key bench player on a decent team with a 20+ PER and Dray's size would be able to command quite a bit on the open market. Problem is, everyone who's anyone in the NBA is well aware of his conditioning issues and temperament, something that could limit the amount of money he's able to command on the open market. In a vacuum, he might be able to come away with a nine or ten million dollar a year offer. That's roughly double what he'll probably get on the open market.

What's going to happen tonight? My prediction is that #Baltche takes a lot of shots, Washington loafs a bit and Wall has a big night on the way to a Wizards win against the Nets' reserves.

Where else can I read about the Brooklyn Nets? Nets Daily is worth a gander.

What are your predictions for tonight's game? Sound off in the comments and vote in our poll!

Poll

Who wins tonight?

Washington

19 votes

Brooklyn

18 votes

37 votes | Poll has closed

Wizards vs Heat preview: Welcome back, LeBron James?

2013-04-10T17:21:49Z

It's always fun to watch LeBron James, even moreso when the Washington Wizards are able to show him up and grab an upset over whichever East-leading team he's on. Will they get another chance? The Heat are coming to town, though it's unclear whether James will be suiting up with the Heat having all but wrapped up the best record of the league.

Both teams are playing in the second game of back to backs and neither has much incentive to go all out tonight, so this should be one of the more unpredictable games of the season.

Where and when? Tip off is at 7 p.m. at the Verizon Center.

Are they good? Do you even need to ask?

Why should I care? The Wizards are playing against the Heat in April. Washington has rarely come out on top, but the games are always a ton of fun to watch.

Who's out? The Big Three as well as Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers are all ~~considering resting for the playoffs~~ listed as day-to-day, although only Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh didn't play last night. Bosh is unlikely to travel to D.C., but Wade did make the trip. Washington will definitely be missing Bradley Beal, while Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor and Trevor Booker are all listed as day-to-day.

What are they good at? Drivin' and kickin'. James and Wade can both get into the paint at will, with the added bonus of being able to destroy smaller defenders on post ups. Everyone else who doesn't play center is somewhere between passable (Norris Cole, even Chris Bosh) and an all-time great (Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis) when it comes to making threes. Add it all up and you have the second best offensive rating in the NBA despite only two players on the team capable of consisting making plays for others off the dribble.

What are they bad at? Rebounding. Miami is 26th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage and 24th in defensive rebounding percentage, largely as a result of playing so much small ball. Chris Andersen is helping a bit and Udonis Haslem has had something of a resurgence on the boards, but the Heat's lack of a true starting caliber center could handicap them against teams that get after it on the glass and/or feature large post players.

Has Father Time finally caught up with Juwan Howard? Apparently so. The 39-year-old former Bullet is averaging only six points per 36 minutes this year, his lowest scoring rate since 2008 when was only 34. And that's in very, very, very limited minutes.

Where else can I read about the Heat? Check out SB Nation's own Hot Hot Hoops.

What are your predictions for tonight's game? Sound off in the comments and vote in our poll!

Poll

Who wins tonight?

Wiz gonna win

29 votes

Heat gonna win

30 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed