Washington Redskins Playoffs Odds Are Under 50 Percent According To Football Outsiders

Football Outsiders has published its series of Week 5 reports, including the DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Here's how the statistical outfit explains the report's methodology:

The playoff odds report plays out the season 20,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

So, what do their simulations think of Washington's chances to make the playoffs? Let's take a look:

Rec DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT Change
3-1 -.1 8.5 1.5% 5.1% 9.0% 13.9% 2.9% 11.9% 29.4% 6.6% 14.8% 44.2% 0.9%

 

Check out the numbers for all 32 teams on the FO's website and track the Skins each week as they try to return to the postseason for the first time since 2007. Washington returns to action this Sunday following their bye week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join SB Nation DC

You must be a member of SB Nation DC to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation DC. You should read them.

Join SB Nation DC

You must be a member of SB Nation DC to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation DC. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.