NFL mock drafts are a lot of fun, but I think we can all agree that it's all really just a lot of guesswork. Is there any other projection system in the world where a 20-percent conversion rate is deemed a success? Besides NBA mock drafts and the weather, probably not. Even though Jake Locker is projected to go to the Redskins in many recent mock drafts, there's definitely a better chance the Redskins pick someone else rather than him.
To drive this point home even further, SB Nation's Redskins blog Hogs Haven went over some mock drafts last year, and found that none of them projected the No. 10 pick correctly.
I researched last year's mock drafts to see the hit rate on the Jaguars, who originally had the #10 overall pick and selected DT Tyson Alualu. I can't find a single draft that correctly picked Alualu
Granted, this is an extreme example, since Alalu was a huge surprise pick to everyone. But it's still a good lesson for all of us. Mock drafts are fun, but they're not always much more than that.