Here's a question for you to ponder on a lazy spring Tuesday afternoon: How will Robert Griffin III perform at the NFL level? With the NFL Draft just nine days away and the Redskins preparing to make a massive investment in the future of their franchise at the quarterback position, wouldn't it be nice to know in advance whether he'd be worth it?
Our friends at PredictionMachine.com (you might remember them from last month's Wizards/Kentucky kerfluffle) have run some numbers and come up with projected 2012 statistics for every prominent prospect in this draft.
Here's how they do it:
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general.
Here are Griffin's projected 2012 numbers: 59.8 completion percentage; 3,952 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 18 interceptions.
For the sake of comparison: Here's Andrew Luck's projected 2012 stats: 60.0 completion percentage, 3,785 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 21interceptions.
And finally, here are Cam Newton's 2011 statistics: 60.0 completion percentage, 4,051 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 17 interceptions. Also, Cam Newton ran for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns. Prediction Machine has Griffin rushing for about 370 yards.
And now you know.