At 9-3, the Navy Midshipmen have a better record than their opponent in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, the 8-4 San Diego State Aztecs. They also have a more well-known program, due to their recent success and the recent failures of the San Diego State program.
And yet, in the hours leading up to Thursday night's game, it's San Diego State that's favored to win by most oddsmakers. However, the line has moved considerably in Navy's favor since the betting opener, which could indicate that Navy has a better chance than the oddsmakers originally thought: Via SB Nation's ods page:
- Opening: San Diego State by 5
- 5Dimes.com: San Diego State by 3
- Bodog: San Diego State by 3.5
There are several reasons for San Diego State to be favored. For one, they have played a tougher schedule, with games against teams like TCU, Utah and Missouri. Navy's toughest game was against either Navy or Air Force, or possibly Notre Dame, so their schedule doesn't stack up. Also, San Diego State is essentially playing a home game in Qualcomm Stadium.