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Half Smokes Hypothetical: What Are The Chances Bryce Harper Busts?

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Half Smokes Hypothetical is a daily discussion where we throw out a D.C. sports-related question based on the news of the day. It's a hypothetical discussion, which is what makes it fun (we hope).

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At 7 p.m. tonight, the Washington Nationals will almost certainly make Bryce Harper the overall No. 1 selection. Harper, of course, has been highly touted, but he's also a 17-year old with a reputation for being a hot head. There's a decent chance he won't live up to the hype.

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So here's today's hypothetical.

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What percentage chance do you think Bryce Harper ends up being a bust? I'll leave the definition of what a "bust" would be up to you guys, but give us your thoughts.