Football Outsiders has published its series of Week 5 reports, including the DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Here's how the statistical outfit explains the report's methodology:
The playoff odds report plays out the season 20,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
So, what do their simulations think of Washington's chances to make the playoffs? Let's take a look:
| Rec | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | Change |
| 3-1 | -.1 | 8.5 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 11.9% | 29.4% | 6.6% | 14.8% | 44.2% | 0.9% |
Check out the numbers for all 32 teams on the FO's website and track the Skins each week as they try to return to the postseason for the first time since 2007. Washington returns to action this Sunday following their bye week against the Philadelphia Eagles.