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Everything about last week was sad. Most of the early games were boring and the late games had some drama but didn't cover. It was just a bad week for our NFL picks. And that's even before we get to the Washington Redskins. The Redskins have a lot of problems and very few hopes, for 2011 anyway.
So in the spirit of moving on, let's dive right in to this week's picks. All lines courtesy of SB Nation's NFL Odds.
(For the record: we picked the Chargers to win on Thursday night, so we're already 0-1).
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4): I am going to make this very simple: do not bet on the Redskins as long as John Beck is under center. The guy cannot throw downfield, therefore, the team cannot move the ball. I actually feel bad for Beck. He tries and he wants to win, but he just doesn't have the physical skill. When Rex Grossman messes up, it's a mental thing. Beck, meanwhile, does not have the arm. If you need proof of that, consider the Redskins, at one point 3-1, are now a four-point underdog to a one-win Miami team starting its backup quarterback. Tough times in D.C. Pick: Dolphins.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Pick 'em): Neither of these teams passes the eye test. Both can play well at home and both are suspect on the road. Since the Falcons are playing in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, I'm rolling with them. New Orleans can't stop the run, so expect a lot from Michael Turner. Pick: Falcons.
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5): This is a tricky line. The Titans have been up and down all season, with a convincing win over the Ravens early and a trouncing at home to the Texans later in the year. The Panthers play close games with all-world rookie quarterback Cam Newton, but rarely seem able to win. I think that trend continues. Chris Johnson seems to be coming on too. Take the points. Pick:Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3): This pick would have been much easier before the wild Ravens' comeback in Pittsburgh last week. I hate picking the Steelers to lose twice in a row, and it's a risky play. But it says here the Bengals defense is real and the Andy Dalton A.J. Green combo can compete with Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace. This will be the Bengals' Super Bowl. Pick: Bengals.
St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-3): I have no interest in this game, I don't want to watch it, let alone bet on it. The Redskins occupy the part of my brain that tolerates awful football. But since we must, and since the Rams seem to be trying lately and the Browns are getting blown out, I'm taking the points. Pick: Rams.
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): I hope Buffalo had a fun ride. Their team was nationally relevant for nine weeks, but the party is over. Dallas is going to win and cover. Bills fans must hate when they have to play NFC East teams and just deal with old Super Bowl highlight films of Jim Kelly getting intercepted and Thurman Thomas losing his helmet. Pick: Cowboys.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3): Could this be the week the Colts finally win? Nope. The Jags defense will shut down Curtis Painter and the Colts offense. Maurice Jones Drew is still a talent and he will remind everyone on Sunday. Pick: Jags.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3): The Chiefs looked awful last week, getting blasted at home by the Dolphins. I think they are in store for a rebound win against Tim Tebow and the Broncos. That said, I don't get the hatred for Tebow. I'm not a huge fan, but he seems like he can win games in the NFL. Still, somebody tell Skip Bayless to calm down. Pick: Chiefs.
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): This is a big game. Tampa proved the doubters wrong last year, and the doubters are out again this year. For years, people buy into the Texans, only to be let down later. One of these teams will win, and though I'm not sure how, I think it will be the Bucs. Pick: Tampa.
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7): This is the definition of a letdown game. The Ravens have celebrated the emotional win over the Steelers all week, on a short week, and now fly cross country to play a Seahawks team with a good defense. I'm taking the points. Pick: Seattle.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-1.5): Another good one. The Bears impressed on Monday night. The defense played well and the offense moved the ball at will. The Lions rested last week and should be ready to go in the Windy City. This game will come down to Jay Cutler against the Lions defensive line. Cutler wins. Pick: Chicago.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3): Sometimes I feel like a scorned lover when I bet on Eli Manning. He can be so cruel, so mean, so bad. But lately, Eli is back to telling me how pretty I am and buying me fro-yo. I'm so easy. Pick: Giants.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1): Know the saying rules are made to be broken? Well, the rule that the Bill Bellichick/Tom Brady Patriots never lose twice in a row is now broken. The Patriots are about to lose three in a row. The Jets are coming on at the right time, and Darrelle Revis will shut down Wes Welker, limiting Brady to little else. Pick: Jets.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5): This is an intense division rivalry with a lot of hype coming into the week. The Pack talking about 16-0? These two teams just played a few weeks ago, and it was close. No reason this one will not be as well. Too many points. Pick: Vikings
Sorry, no line on the Arizona Cardinals verse Philadelphia Eagles game, too many questions at QB for the Cards. The Eagles will be giving up a bunch of points at home, and I say lay 'em when the line does come out.
Last week: 4-9
Season: 38-39-5